Judgement under uncertainty
Weighs the possible explanations when data are missing or conflicting and reaches a reasoned judgement while stating the remaining uncertainty.
How hrmforce measures this
- Assessment method
- Situational Judgement Test · rho 0.12 (SD 0.11)
- hrmforce instrument
- Big Fifty, Competency Check
- Competency (50-framework)
- Judgment
- Trainability
- medium
- Demand outlook 2026 to 2030
- rising
Scenario with response options, scored on knowledge or behavioural tendency.
This is a selection criterion, not a short-term development goal. Do not put a three-month development plan on it.
Behavioural anchors
| Level | Behaviour at this level |
|---|---|
| N1 Guided | Indicates which data are missing when in doubt and proposes a provisional judgement to the manager. works under supervision and follows instruction · routine, one variable at a time · own task |
| N3 Proficient | Forms a judgement on incomplete files, names the assumptions used and states which new fact would change that judgement. sets own approach and seeks input proactively · several variables, some ambiguity · own team or process |
| N5 Leading | Judges in situations of high uncertainty and opposing interests, accounts for this publicly and revises the judgement on new evidence. sets the standard and the policy · strategic, under high uncertainty · organisation, value chain or profession |
N2 and N4 are deliberately not anchored. Raters place them between the anchors, following the O*NET convention.
Underlying skills
These skills inherit the assessment route and the behavioural anchors of this construct.
| T | Skill | Definition | Demand outlook 2026 to 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|
| G | Making assumptions explicit Surfacing assumptions | States which assumptions underlie a judgement and indicates how firm those assumptions are. | rising |
| G | Stating uncertainty explicitly Communicating uncertainty | Indicates with a conclusion what is unknown and which caveat therefore belongs to the judgement. | rising |
| G | Estimating a range Range estimation · Confidence interval | Gives a lower and upper bound instead of a single figure and justifies how those were set. | rising |
| G | Weighing conflicting signals Weighing conflicting evidence | Weighs sources and signals that contradict each other and explains why one deserves more weight. | rising |
| G | Revising a provisional judgement Updating judgement | Adjusts an earlier judgement as soon as new data warrant it and records that change. | rising |
| G | Justifying professional judgement Professional judgement · Reasoned justification | Explains which data, standards and trade offs a judgement rests on and where its limits lie. | rising |
| G | Seeking a second opinion when in doubt Second opinion · Peer consultation | Puts a doubtful case to a colleague or expert before a decision is made final. | rising |
| G | Acting when data are missing Acting on incomplete information | Chooses a defensible next step when information is incomplete and names what must still be checked. | rising |