V Skill HF-D1.3-004 transversal 9 skills
Scenario thinking and futures literacy
Explores several possible futures for an issue, describes the consequences per scenario and names signals that point to a scenario.
How hrmforce measures this
- Assessment method
- Assessment centre · rho 0.29 (SD 0.09)
- hrmforce instrument
- Competency Check, Structured interview
- Competency (50-framework)
- Vision
- Trainability
- high
- Demand outlook 2026 to 2030
- rising
Multiple exercises, multiple assessors, dimension-wise scoring.
Behavioural anchors
| Level | Behaviour at this level |
|---|---|
| N1 Guided | Names two possible outcomes for a plan and states what would then have to change in the own work. works under supervision and follows instruction · routine, one variable at a time · own task |
| N3 Proficient | Works out three scenarios for the own process with assumptions and consequences and names the first signals per scenario. sets own approach and seeks input proactively · several variables, some ambiguity · own team or process |
| N5 Leading | Draws up scenarios for the organisation with a horizon of years and links decision moments and measurable signal values to them. sets the standard and the policy · strategic, under high uncertainty · organisation, value chain or profession |
N2 and N4 are deliberately not anchored. Raters place them between the anchors, following the O*NET convention.
Underlying skills
These skills inherit the assessment route and the behavioural anchors of this construct.
| T | Skill | Definition | Demand outlook 2026 to 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|
| V | Building a scenario matrix Scenario matrix · Two axes scenarios | Chooses two key uncertainties as axes and works out the four resulting future pictures concretely. | rising |
| V | Identifying key uncertainties Key uncertainties · Critical uncertainties | Determines which uncertain factors have the greatest influence on the outcome of an issue. | rising |
| V | Working out best and worst case Best and worst case · Range scenarios | Describes for a plan the most favourable and least favourable course with the consequences per variant. | rising |
| V | Running a premortem Premortem · Prospective hindsight | Explores before a project starts why it may have failed a year later and collects countermeasures. | rising |
| V | Naming early warning signals Early warning signals · Leading indicators | Determines per scenario which observable signals indicate that this scenario is becoming reality. | rising |
| V | Horizon scanning and trend analysis Horizon scanning · Trend analysis | Systematically tracks developments outside the organisation and judges which consequences they hold for the work. | rising |
| V | Performing what if analysis What if analysis · Scenario modelling | Calculates what happens to the outcome if one or more assumptions turn out differently than expected. | rising |
| V | Applying backcasting Backcasting · Reverse planning | Starts from a desired end state and works back in steps to what must happen now. | rising |
| V | Translating scenarios into choices Robust options · No regret measures | Determines which measures are wise in all scenarios and which belong only to a specific scenario. | rising |